The Alamo City's real estate market has been holding its breath lately. After a period of frenzied activity and soaring prices, rising interest rates have tapped the brakes on the San Antonio market. But whispers of a potential Fed rate cut in September have sparked a glimmer of hope for buyers and sellers alike. Could this be the catalyst for a market fiesta, or will it be a flash in the pan?

San Antonio: A Market Snapshot

Before we delve into the potential impact of a rate cut, let's look at where San Antonio stands. According to the San Antonio Board of Realtors (SABOR):

• Median home prices in July 2024 hovered around $320,000, reflecting a slight cooling from the peak but still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• Inventory remains relatively low, indicating a continued seller's market, though not as extreme as in previous months.
• Sales have slowed compared to the record pace of the past two years, but demand still outpaces supply in many areas.

The Rate Cut Ripple Effect: A Closer Look at San Antonio

A Fed rate cut, while not guaranteed, could have a significant impact on San Antonio's real estate landscape. Here's a breakdown of the potential pros and cons:

Pros:

• Reinvigorated Buyer Pool: Lower mortgage rates could entice hesitant buyers back into the market, particularly first-time buyers who were priced out during the peak. This increased demand could benefit San Antonio's more affordable neighborhoods, potentially driving up prices in those areas.
• Boost for Military Families: San Antonio, with its strong military presence, could see a surge in activity from military families taking advantage of lower rates and VA loan programs. This could be particularly impactful in areas surrounding military bases like Fort Sam Houston and Lackland Air Force Base.
• Renewed Investor Interest: Lower rates could attract real estate investors seeking better returns. San Antonio's relatively affordable market and strong rental demand make it an attractive option for investors, potentially leading to increased competition for properties.

Cons:

• Affordability Challenges Persist: While lower rates help, they don't erase the affordability challenges faced by many San Antonians. Rising property taxes and insurance costs, coupled with inflation, continue to put pressure on affordability, even with lower mortgage rates.
• Inventory Constraints: San Antonio's persistent low inventory could limit the impact of a rate cut. With limited options available, increased buyer demand could lead to bidding wars and potentially drive prices even higher, further exacerbating affordability concerns.
• Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Uncertainty: A rate cut might offer temporary relief, but it doesn't address the underlying economic factors impacting the market. The long-term impact on San Antonio real estate remains uncertain and depends on various factors beyond just interest rates.

Navigating the Road Ahead: Advice for San Antonio Buyers and Sellers

Whether you're looking to buy your first home in Stone Oak, sell your charming bungalow in Alamo Heights, or invest in a rental property near The Pearl, understanding the potential impact of a rate cut is crucial.

• Buyers: Be prepared for increased competition. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, work with an experienced local realtor, and be ready to act quickly when you find the right property.
• Sellers: Don't overprice your property based on hype. While a rate cut could boost demand, it's essential to price competitively to attract buyers in a potentially more balanced market.
• Investors: Carefully analyze potential returns, factoring in not just lower mortgage rates but also property taxes, insurance, and potential vacancy rates.

The Bottom Line: Proceed with Cautious Optimism

A potential Fed rate cut in September presents both opportunities and challenges for San Antonio's real estate market. While lower mortgage rates could stimulate activity and improve affordability for some, it's crucial to remember that the market is influenced by a complex interplay of factors. Staying informed, working with experienced professionals, and carefully assessing your individual circumstances will be key to navigating the evolving San Antonio real estate landscape.

On the Mark Appraisals strives to be on top of the latest real estate trends.